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Card #c400IR // #c400SynthesisThesis

Mass extinctions over the past 550 million years are explained just as well by a uniform random distribution as by any galactic mechanism — no clear link between the Sun's galactic orbit and Earth's extinction record; meanwhile the Sun's motion through the Galaxy does not significantly influence the impact-cratering rate, and Earth's own obliquity (tilt) is the dominant trigger of ice-age deglaciations over the past 2 million years.

— In our words · Source: Investigations into the impact of astronomical phenomena on the terrestrial biosphere and climate (Fabo Feng)

[Use when]

Test the null first — extinction events fit pure randomness as well as any exotic cosmic mechanism; you can only claim a galactic cause after the null fails.

[Why it matters]

A rigorous negative result — the fashionable "galactic causes of extinctions" hypothesis fails a Bayesian test, the weird comet orbits need no Nemesis planet, and the ice ages answer to orbital tilt.