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Card #c472IR // #c472Synthesis

If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.

— In our words · Source: The Art of War (Sun Tzu)

[Use when]

A decision is being made on assumptions nobody paid to check.

[Why it matters]

The famous formula is only the headline; the book gives you the machinery twice. First the audit: five constant factors, seven head-to-head comparisons of the two sides, and the startling claim, "By means of these seven considerations I can forecast victory or defeat." Victory is not luck or genius; it is a calculation made "in the temple ere the battle is fought." Then, in the closing chapter, the source of the decisive input: "what enables the wise sovereign and the good general to strike and conquer, and achieve things beyond the reach of ordinary men, is foreknowledge," and "Knowledge of the enemy's dispositions can only be obtained from other men," not from spirits, not from experience, not from calculation. And the sting: "to remain in ignorance of the enemy's condition simply because one grudges the outlay of a hundred ounces of silver in honors and emoluments, is the height of inhumanity." Intelligence is the cheapest victory in the book.

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