Shifting Policy Postures of Indonesia and Thailand: Responding to the China Challenge
Masters thesis — Naval Postgraduate School, 2015. Full text: https://archive.org/details/DTIC_ADA632310
Arguments
Shifting Policy Postures of Indonesia and Thailand: Responding to the China Challenge
Hedging isn't a mechanical response to power — it's a political calculation; the same rising China produces opposite strategies depending on what elites need at home.
After China shifted to a more assertive posture in 2012, Indonesia moved toward balancing (military buildup, closer U.S. defense ties) while Thailand moved toward bandwagoning — and the difference wasn't the size of the China threat but how each ruling elite weighed economic benefits against security fears, with domestic politics intervening.
Why it matters
Hedging isn't a mechanical response to power — it's a political calculation; the same rising China produces opposite strategies depending on what elites need at home.
Use when: States don't react to threats — they react to what their leaders think the threat is worth, and domestic politics sets the exchange rate.