Idea Ripper // ArchiveCards: 1555 [Live] | Updated: 2026-10-14
Card #c51IR // #c51Synthesis

They found 136 such studies, covering everything from prediction of IQ to diagnosis of heart disease. In 48% of them, there was no significant difference between the two; the experts, in other words, were on average no better than the formulas. A much bigger blow to the notion of human superiority in judgment came from the finding that in 46% of the studies considered, the human experts actually performed significantly worse than the numbers and formulas alone.

— In our words · Source: Machine, Platform, Crowd (Andrew McAfee & Erik Brynjolfsson)

[Use when]

When an expert's gut says one thing and the model says another.

[Why it matters]

Fifty years of head-to-head research, quantified: experts tie the formula half the time and lose to it nearly half the time — the empirical foundation for handing decisions to algorithms.

More from Machine, Platform, Crowd

#c50We will try to convince you that because of recent technological changes, companies need to rethink the balance between minds and machines,…When you're deciding where the next dollar of investment goes: mind or machine, product or platform, core or… #c52There is no controversy in social science that shows such a large body of qualitatively diverse studies coming out so uniformly in the same…When someone defends expert intuition against the data. #c53In a test involving more than 82,000 forecasts, Tetlock found that “humanity barely bests [a] chimp” throwing darts at the possible…When a forecast is presented as expertise rather than a coin flip with footnotes.