Idea Ripper // ArchiveCards: 1555 [Live] | Updated: 2026-10-14
Card #c53IR // #c53Synthesis

In a test involving more than 82,000 forecasts, Tetlock found that “humanity barely bests [a] chimp” throwing darts at the possible outcomes.

— In our words · Source: Machine, Platform, Crowd (Andrew McAfee & Erik Brynjolfsson)

[Use when]

When a forecast is presented as expertise rather than a coin flip with footnotes.

[Why it matters]

82,000 expert forecasts, and the species barely beats random darts — the prediction half of the book's case against the expert core.

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