"After China shifted to a more assertive posture…" — Anthony M. Wong (#c894)

Card #c894IR // #c894SynthesisMilitary report

After China shifted to a more assertive posture in 2012, Indonesia moved toward balancing (military buildup, closer U.S. defense ties) while Thailand moved toward bandwagoning — and the difference wasn't the size of the China threat but how each ruling elite weighed economic benefits against security fears, with domestic politics intervening.

— In our words · Source: Shifting Policy Postures of Indonesia and Thailand: Responding to the China Challenge (Anthony M. Wong)

[Use when]

States don't react to threats — they react to what their leaders think the threat is worth, and domestic politics sets the exchange rate.

[Why it matters]

Hedging isn't a mechanical response to power — it's a political calculation; the same rising China produces opposite strategies depending on what elites need at home.