Idea Ripper // ArchiveCards: 1555 [Live] | Updated: 2026-10-14
Card #c1254IR // #c1254Synthesis

"The party whose turnout drops by less from the presidential election is the one that wins the midterms."

— In our words · Source: This Is the Plan (Ben Wikler)

[Use when]

You're forecasting a contest where both sides will lose participation and the question is who loses less.

[Why it matters]

Turnout always falls in midterms. The winner is decided by which side's voters are more alarmed and mobilized. That is why the president's party nearly always loses seats.

Filed under situations:When a rival’s move changes your game

More from This Is the Plan

#c1233"Here’s the operating principle: All other things being equal, you’ll be most persuasive to the people with whom you have the closest…You want to change minds and are about to start with the widest, least personal channel available. #c1234"Keep a CONSTANT WATCH on the DOUBTFUL VOTERS, and from time to time have them TALKED TO by those IN WHOM THEY HAVE THE MOST CONFIDENCE."You need to win over a wavering group and are deciding who should deliver the message. #c1235"Whenever a new way to reach someone unsolicitedly and cheaply pops into existence—mail, texts, Facebook messages—it has a brief twinkling…Your team is excited about a new cheap outreach channel because early numbers look great.

Same situation, different book

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