Idea Ripper // ArchiveCards: 1555 [Live] | Updated: 2026-10-14
Card #c1278IR // #c1278Synthesis

"Keynes asks us to imagine a newspaper which holds a contest where readers are rewarded for choosing which contestant will be chosen by the most other readers." "The task is not to choose the most beautiful woman, but instead to choose the woman others will think is most beautiful."

— In our words · Source: Trade Outside the Box (Brent Donnelly)

[Use when]

You're right on the merits and need to predict how a crowd, market or committee will actually decide.

[Why it matters]

Donnelly uses Keynes' contest to explain why buying the cheapest stock on a spreadsheet can lose. Prices move on what other participants will believe next, and that is a different question from what's true.

Filed under situations:When a rival’s move changes your gameWhen you need a yes and they’re not there yet

More from Trade Outside the Box

#c1279"Younger children, or those without a fully developed Theory of Mind, will say that James will say: “pencils,” because they are unable to…You're sure the other side must see what you see. #c1280"There is a market aphorism that says: Early is the same thing as wrong." "You underperform as you wait for your dream trade to come true…You're about to bet against a trend just because it has gone a long way. #c1281"The money is made by those who can get outside themselves to combine second-order thinking with ultrarational behavior to forecast and…You're relying on being smarter than the competition in a field driven by crowd emotion.

Same situation, different book

#c1353Give each crowd its own night to winYou're selling the same event or product to several groups that compete with each other.From Cancel Me If You Can #c1249The four years decide the last weekYou're saving effort for the final push of a sale, a vote or a launch.From This Is the Plan #c1235Every cheap new channel burns outYour team is excited about a new cheap outreach channel because early numbers look great.From This Is the Plan #c1549The Cathartic Purge and the Shadow of TranquillityUse when a strategy session or research team is prematurely locked into a dogmatic narrative and needs a…From Lives of Eminent Philosophers