Idea Ripper // ArchiveCards: 1555 [Live] | Updated: 2026-10-14
Card #c1236IR // #c1236Synthesis

"The most recent review of the available evidence found that a conversation with someone at their doorstep in a “high-salience” election like a presidential race results in a 3 percent boost in that person’s likelihood to vote. So, talk to thirty-three people and (on average) you’ll generate one vote."

— In our words · Source: This Is the Plan (Ben Wikler)

[Use when]

You're asking people to do slow, low-yield outreach and need them to understand what success looks like.

[Why it matters]

Wikler tells canvassers to set expectations low. About one door in five opens, and most conversations change nothing. Knowing the base rate keeps people going through dull hours, and shows that the effect is real.

More from This Is the Plan

#c1233"Here’s the operating principle: All other things being equal, you’ll be most persuasive to the people with whom you have the closest…You want to change minds and are about to start with the widest, least personal channel available. #c1234"Keep a CONSTANT WATCH on the DOUBTFUL VOTERS, and from time to time have them TALKED TO by those IN WHOM THEY HAVE THE MOST CONFIDENCE."You need to win over a wavering group and are deciding who should deliver the message. #c1235"Whenever a new way to reach someone unsolicitedly and cheaply pops into existence—mail, texts, Facebook messages—it has a brief twinkling…Your team is excited about a new cheap outreach channel because early numbers look great.

Same situation, different book

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