When you must decide and the facts aren’t in
31 cards from 9 books, filed under “Deciding under uncertainty”. Newest first; every row is the card’s title and the moment you would use it.
#c1444Paper Millionaires Forgot How Heavy Gold IsBefore bidding on a distressed competitor's customer list or inventory, price out the exact labor and legal cost of migrating the load.From The Hobbit
#c1358Take the deal when the timing and the partner are rightAn offer undervalues you but solves your real constraints and comes from a partner you trust.From Cancel Me If You Can
#c1340Get advice, make your own callYou're gathering opinions on a big decision and risk handing it to the loudest adviser.From Courage Can Save Us
#c1327Stop counting the political costFear of backlash is shaping every decision you make.From Courage Can Save Us
#c1326Pick the one that's easier to explainTwo options look close and you'll have to defend whichever you pick.From Courage Can Save Us
#c1325Be ready to be misunderstood by your own sidePeople you respect are pressing you to reverse a decision you still believe is right.From Courage Can Save Us
#c1321The fire-in-the-belly testYou're weighing a long-shot venture and the analysis says no.From Courage Can Save Us
#c1319We always underestimate the rolloutYou're setting expectations for when a new technology will pay off.From Digital Impact
#c1310The tier-two supplier is what shuts you downYou're assessing supply or vendor risk and only looking one level down.From Digital Impact
#c1307Bad data is worse than noneYou're about to train or analyze on a large historical dataset nobody has audited.From Digital Impact
#c1296Count the mental capital a bet consumesA project looks good on paper and would occupy your head every day for months.From Trade Outside the Box
#c1295Match the analysis to the time horizonYour argument is about the long run and your commitment can be shaken out next week.From Trade Outside the Box
#c1294The too-hard pileYou feel you should master everything adjacent to your work.From Trade Outside the Box
#c1293Don't let adverse selection paralyze youYou're worried that anyone willing to deal with you must know something you don't.From Trade Outside the Box
#c1292Weight their view by how wide they quoteThe other side's number differs from yours and you have to decide how much to move.From Trade Outside the Box
#c1289The group average isn't your averageA bet looks good on average and you'll be making it over and over with the same bankroll.From Trade Outside the Box
#c1288Falling volatility says the move is tiredA trend is still going but the swings around it have gone quiet.From Trade Outside the Box
#c1285Avoid ruin first, maximize returns secondA high-return plan carries a small chance of wiping you out.From Trade Outside the Box
#c1284Am I doing this for fun or for money?You notice yourself raising the stakes on a decision because the safe version feels dull.From Trade Outside the Box
#c1283Forecasters herd to protect their careersYou're treating a tight consensus of expert forecasts as a measure of real uncertainty.From Trade Outside the Box
#c1281The calmest mind wins, not the biggest brainYou're relying on being smarter than the competition in a field driven by crowd emotion.From Trade Outside the Box
#c1280Early is the same as wrong, and so is lateYou're about to bet against a trend just because it has gone a long way.From Trade Outside the Box
#c1273Moving the goalposts, best versus goodEach time a deal gets close, someone declares it not good enough.From The Oxford Handbook of Modern Diplomacy
#c1267Test motives instead of pleadingYou're chasing a reluctant party to the table and wondering why each round goes nowhere.From The Oxford Handbook of Modern Diplomacy
#c1259Time to cool down saved the worldYou've just been provoked and the pressure is on to answer today.From The Oxford Handbook of Modern Diplomacy
#c1253Strike first, on truth's sideYou know something true before the official source confirms it and a false claim is about to fill the gap.From This Is the Plan
#c1252After a loss: look at the data, keep the coreYou've just lost a big contest and people are calling for a complete reinvention.From This Is the Plan
#c1236One vote per thirty-three doorsYou're asking people to do slow, low-yield outreach and need them to understand what success looks like.From This Is the Plan
#c1232The brain jumps to conclusions, paper doesn'tYou're about to make a decision you've only reasoned through in your head.From How to Take Smart Notes
#c1216Darwin's golden rule: write down the objection at onceYou're building a case for a plan or a thesis and want the objections in hand before anyone else raises them.From How to Take Smart Notes
#c1159Pray only for what you've trained forYour plan for a hard outcome leans on luck in places where training would do.From Cyropaedia