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Card #c1256IR // #c1256Synthesis

"Public bluff and bluster intended to induce caution often induced risk-taking." "Khrushchev had no way of knowing whether this statement was intended for a domestic audience or for him."

— In our words · Source: The Oxford Handbook of Modern Diplomacy (Andrew F. Cooper, Jorge Heine & Ramesh Thakur)

[Use when]

You're sending a warning through a public channel and assuming the target will read it the way you meant it.

[Why it matters]

David Welch finds that broadcast diplomacy before the Cuban missile crisis largely failed. Kennedy's September warning could be read as campaign talk for the midterms, which made Khrushchev's secret deployment look survivable. A message meant for one audience gets decoded by another.

Filed under situations:When you need a yes and they’re not there yetWhen the other side has more leverage

More from The Oxford Handbook of Modern Diplomacy

#c1255"…‘negotiation is getting something by giving something, and it is the search for solutions when there are conflicts of interest between…You're pushing for the best possible terms and haven't asked whether the other side will still want to comply… #c1257"He was careful not to describe this as an ultimatum, but as a simple fact." "In framing the problem thus, Robert Kennedy was, in effect,…You need to convey a deadline without triggering the defiance an ultimatum invites. #c1258"Kennedy evidently felt that the idea would be more palatable to the American public and to NATO allies if Kennedy were seen to be…You're willing to concede something but can't be seen offering it.

Same situation, different book

#c1356Show them the engine, skip the pitchYou have a metric that proves your value better than any presentation.From Cancel Me If You Can #c1322Fill the reservoir of trust before you need itYou'll eventually need a deal with a rival and have no reason yet to talk to them.From Courage Can Save Us #c1279The Smarties test for adultsYou're sure the other side must see what you see.From Trade Outside the Box #c1237Treat the surprising answer as a giftYou're talking to someone on the fence and they say something that makes you want to argue.From This Is the Plan